If 270,000 people in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado had switched their votes from Obama to Romney, Mitt Romney would have been elected POTUS in 2012. He obviously didn’t, and other than North Carolina, he didn’t snag any swing state whose margin was less than 6%. Will the Democratic nominee in 2016 will outperform Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection numbers. It’s certainly up in the air.
Also up in the air? The Republican nominee. However, I’m fairly confident in saying that the GOP nominee will be one of the following five people, in order of their polling: Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush, or Christie.
So here’s your question: Considering the attached swing state picture, who is most likely to outperform Mitt Romney in the 8 swing states of North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Iowa? Also, which Republican is most likely to fall short of Romney’s 2012 showing?
In essence, America’s next president will win a majority of these 8 states. Since Daily Kos is a progressive website, let’s go with a more negative Republican question: What Republican is LEAST LIKELY to win these swing states? In short, which Republican candidate do you feel will perform WORSE than Mitt Romney?
Let’s go with two candidates, though. Which pair of GOP candidates do Hillary/Bernie have no reason to worry about come general election time in November, because if they are the nominee, they have no chance of winning?
